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Ed's Note

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Beware the global economic tectonic plates

There is ample evidence around that the tectonic plates bearing the global economy – be they the international currency regime, open trade arrangements and other international protocols; or of the integrity and sustainability of sovereign balance of payments in various countries – are in a volatile cycle.

So quickly do breaking news and developments on this front follow on one another, that it is difficult to keep up on a day-to-day basis. For a quarterly publication such as Blue Chip to attempt to give a detailed picture of what is happening out there in the financial world and the associated field of asset and wealth management, is well nigh impossible.

We can but attempt to offer a wide-angled snapshot of an extremely unpredictable and multifaceted environment.

After many of the articles in this edition had been written, news broke about a new crisis in Europe surrounding the debt problems of Ireland and Portugal.

The dangers of a currency and/or trade war between America, China and other countries are greater than ever as the world waits to gauge the full impact of the latest round of so-called quantitative easing unleashed globally by the American Federal Reserve.

It is against this background that the assessment and warning by South African Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan, that present capital inflows into the country could suddenly reverse into a rapid outflow, should be heeded.

Now is not the time to become fixated on so-called silver-bullet solutions. For that, there are way too many uncertainties and tremendous complexities in play. Different potential situations will demand different policy prescriptions.

What is true at sovereign level in this regard is no less true at the level of the individual portfolio manager, investment adviser or wealth manager.

The global economic environment has become a dangerous one in which huge fundamental restructuring may be at hand in the not-too-distant future and, in some instances, may already be in progress.

There rests a huge responsibility on the shoulders of international institutions, on those who manage the wealth and assets of both nations, and of individuals, to fulfil their tasks in these days with calm wisdom and very well-weighted circumspection.

How well they deal with the challenges facing them during this time of financial and economic turmoil will have a telling impact on the sustainability of the next generation – on the way of life on our planet as we have come to know it during the great run we have had over the last two decades and longer.

Piet Coetzer

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