There were no real surprises in the Budget that Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented to parliament on 23 February. In fact, it represented continuity to such an extent that some even called it boring.

But, for that we should be grateful.

It says much about the way in which the country’s finances, at least at the macro level, are being managed that such a steady ship could be maintained in the uncharted waters created by the great recession and other big international changes presently under way on the global scene.

For this, Minister Gordhan, his predecessor Trevor Manuel and their closest advisers deserve our congratulations.

Boring is to be preferred to perhaps falling victim of the old Chinese saying: “If you want to curse a man, you wish him to live in interesting times.”

And, as is reflected in some of the articles in this edition of Blue Chip, there are many factors presently at play on the global scene that create plenty of uncertainties, which could yet make for some very interesting times.

For one, on a fundamental structural level, the financial crisis of 2008 has left the market-driven capitalist system under pressure.

On another front, there is an increasing movement toward a replacement of the dollar-anchored currency system as we have come to know it since World War 2, and it is unlikely that a shake-up of the world of banks and other financial institutions is quite behind us yet.

On the eve of the Budget speech, a revolutionary tsunami hit North Africa and the Middle East, the epicentre of the world’s oil supply.

The most immediate implication, among many others, is the possibility that soaring oil prices could trip up the still stuttering recovery of the global economy and impact negatively on the economies of large emerging nations such as China – on which so much hope is pinned to pull and push the world economy into a new growth phase.

At this point, it is not possible to predict the full ramifications of the upheavals in that part of the world, but it is clear that few, if any, corners of the world will be left untouched.

For South Africa, for instance, it seems certain to bring higher fuel prices in the short- to medium term, with the inflationary pressures that will accompany this.

It may further impact considerably on geopolitical power relationships as well as stability.

In short, the world has now become quite a bit less predictable than it was a few weeks ago.

Indeed, there may be some real interesting times ahead!

Presenting a prudent, boring budget is one thing, but the real test will lie in the hands-on management in the months ahead as the macro-environment seems on the verge of presenting even stormier uncharted waters.

Piet Coetzer